Vault of the Archangel. Windswept Heath. Auriok Champion. Lingering Souls. Spectral Procession. Hidden Stockpile. Secure the Wastes. Sorin, Solemn Visitor.
Intangible Virtue. Path to Exile. Inquisition of Kozelik. Rest in Peace. Burrenton Forge-Tender. Stony Silence. Runed Halo. Lost Legacy. Fatal Push. Engineered Explosives. Damping Sphere. Zealous Persecution. Isolated Chapel. Windbrisk Heights. Murderous Cut. Anguished Unmaking. Ratchet Bomb. This suggests that the metagame warp I noted months ago is weakening. Eldrazi Tron and GDS are powerful, but far from unbeatable.
The problem with both is that they have lots of air. Etron has lots of lands, land search, and mana rocks. BGx is a pile of the best cards that are relevant the entire game.
They even have lots of creature-lands so their lands remain live draws. From that overall population, what actually rose to the top? Fast combo is traditionally advantaged over creature decks, though Affinity was hampered by some subpar draws. The fundamental flaw of the deck I mentioned above was on full display, as Andrew Jessup had plenty of early disruption but not the early threats to close the game before Paul Mueller recovered. However, all that is less important than the overall view of the metagame that the tournament gave us.
The Top 32 is nice and all even if the prizes are a bit weak, but when trying to find the best decks in the tournament we should pick the best results. It would also make the table prohibitively huge. Not a single Eldrazi Tron. Out of fifteen decks, nobody made Top One did squeak into Top 32, but only just at 31st. That is a remarkable failure to convert.
Jeskai also had disappointing results. Of the previous list toppers, only Affinity remains, both representatives in the Top 8 no less. Exactly what all this means is hard to determine. GDS placing two copies into Top 16, even just barely, does still speak to its power.
Combo is back. And far faster than it used to be. Ad Nauseam was the only real combo deck for years because of its resistance to disruption relative to Storm. Be aware and be ready. Affinity and Storm placed two copies again. This marks them as the decks to watch. Placing well in two events speaks well of their power. However, this is the Classic accompanying a Modern Open.
As a result, you tend to see similar decks. However, we do assume that the best decks win more, so that could also be an indication of their place in the metagame.
We need to wait until next week to see. Or it looks that way. The other is a true Nahiri, the Harbinger control deck in the classic model. It was a relatively small event compared to the Open, and this gives weird brews a better chance to spike the event. With the data from Cincinnati next week and more in coming weeks, we will build a far more accurate picture.
Eventually we will have enough to actually draw conclusions about the Modern metagame. You could probably see this table coming. Storm, Affinity, and Jeskai decks had the best weekend, accounting for If you wanted to do well, these decks gave you the best odds in Charlotte. If they continue to do well this will indicate high-tier status. Following them are GDS, Abzan, and then all the singletons. The other thing to conclude from this table is that Etron was a very poor choice in Charlotte.
Whether this was because of weaknesses in the deck or a very hostile metagame is impossible to say. If this continues, a reexamination of the deck and its place will be necessary. Who cares if it grinds results well on MTGO if it falls apart on the bigish stage? Nothing in terms of the actual metagame. But as a result there is quite a bit to investigate. Etron feeds on midrange decks and Chalice-soft decks. Even GDS can push through a Chalice, even if two can be problematic. This may help explain why Storm did well.
Affinity and Jeskai being the other two big decks is interesting because Jeskai has such a good matchup against Affinity. Lightning Helix and Vault Skirge are bad news for red decks. Neither is exactly cold to Etron or Storm either.
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